| Iran ruminations |
[Jun. 19th, 2009|08:11 pm] |
I have been following the news out of Iran and casting my mind back to other occasions when I have seen similar events.
There was the election in the Philippines in 1986. President Marcos called an election which he lost but claimed to win. Popular protests started to grow and the military was called out to quell them. The people continued to protest and parts of the military switched sides. Marcos finally fled to exile in the United States.
Romania in 1989, a rally being addressed by President Ceausescu turns into a riot when protesters shouted him down. The people had been pushed to the point where they felt they had nothing to lose. Riots followed, and the military ultimately sided with the protesters.
In Russia in 1991, a cabal rebelled against President Gorbachev. The people of Moscow came out into the streets to oppose the coup, and they occupied the 'White House' the seat of city government. Military units were brought in to remove them by force, but refused to attack. The coup fizzled shortly thereafter.
The counter example to all of these successful 'people power' movements is Tienanmen Square, where the protest was crushed by military units that purportedly did not speak the local dialect, so the protester's appeals to them were not understood.
Most of the analysts I have heard will not predict what the final outcome of the current protests will be, and I am certainly not smarter than they are. But today, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that there is a legal path to pursue, and street protests will not be the way to change the outcome of the election. He has wedded himself to the outcome f the election, and thereby to the current administration of Iran.
I think that there is a tipping point in this process. If people are showing up for a protest, being person 10,001 seems much less risky than being person 101. And there are protests scheduled for Saturday. If the Iranian people all feel that they will have lots of company, they may continue the protests. But from here, I can only guess at the mood of the Iranians.
By Monday morning, we may have a much better idea of how this will play out. |
|
|
| Taxes |
[Apr. 17th, 2009|11:00 am] |
My taxes are done. But like most people, I did not enjoy the process. I have been thinking of a different thing to do about our tax code. And it does not involve tea.
Create between five and ten sample datasets with income, deductions, and other information. Get 100 IRS employees, and all the congress people, and put them in seperate rooms. Give each of them two or three returns to do from the sample cases, having varying levels of difficulty. Nothing impossible, or requiring significant judgment calls, but beyond 'married, two W-2s, and 2.4 dependents'. When they have all finished, you compare the results.
The act of doing the preperation may have a desirable effect on the people who write the laws, I suspect that most of them have accountants do it. And for all those who did a specific sample case, if the results don't agree within rounding errors, they should have to explain why. |
|
|
| Predictions Requested |
[Nov. 3rd, 2008|01:21 pm] |
Today is the day before the election, so it seems like a good day to pose this question.
How many pardons will George W. Bush issue between today and January 20?
If you are feeling brave, or precognitive, or just want to do some political commentary, post your predictions. Giving names will make it even better. |
|
|
| Something that made me smile |
[Jun. 18th, 2008|10:28 pm] |
|
This morning I was walking to the train station, as I do most workdays. As I walked along Main street, a young lady emerged from a side street, jogged across Main Street and then down a street on the other side. She was obviously a runner who had taken part in a 'corporate challenge', and her t-shirt had the word "Chase" across the back. My thought, "I can try, but I don't think I will be able to keep up." |
|
|
| A conspiracy exposed |
[Dec. 18th, 2006|05:08 pm] |
Today there is a conspiracy afoot. The conspirators have there own code of silence, code words, and knowing nods to other conspirators. They manufacture evidence to support the 'story' that is sold to the subjects of the conspiracy. They have hired actors to portray the characters in the storyline they are trying to sell. There have been movies and television programs produced to convince the uninformed. Even august media organizations are involved, attesting with great authority to the truth of the narrative tale that the conspiracy propagates.
And who is the target of this massive effort at misdirection? Some of the most gullible citizens of our society. And evey year, there is another group of individuals to 'convince'.
The conspirators would claim that the subjects of their conspiracy are not victims of it. That when the subjects of this effort are mature enough to understand, they will be brought into the circle. That the subjects actually come out ahead, since the conspirators distract them with desirable things, in exchange for modified behavior.
And now you know.
Happy Holidays. |
|
|
| George Bush |
[Nov. 14th, 2006|12:54 pm] |
I have been thinking about President Bush of late. Several thoughts keep recurring to me.
First, we have elected a cheerleader. The cheerleader's job is to stay on the sidelines and encourage the crowd, no matter what is going on on the field. In that job, he doesn't face the situation where he is behind, and has to grit his teeth, get a ferocious gleam in his eye, and 'do it'. Anyone who has been in that situation knows that you may win, you may lose, but you focus on the goal, and push with all your might and skill. President Bush seems more concerned with appearance than achievement. Which is part of why we are where we are today.
The second thought is that other people have pointed out that Bush has moved from position to position in the business world, and when he got into trouble, his father's friends have stepped in to bail him out. Now we have the 'Iraq Study Group', headed by James Baker, who worked in the first President Bush's White House. The realists are being asked to fix the problems created by the neo-cons. But I doubt Mr. Baker can retrieve the situation in Iraq quickly or cleanly. I doubt anyone can at this point.
Finally, Bush has said that 'God wanted me to be President'. He also seems to assume that we are the good guys, and that because of that, God is on our side, no matter what we do. He should listen to the words of another Republican President, Abraham Lincoln. When assured that God was on the side of the Union, Lincoln replied that he was more concerned that the Union be on God's side. |
|
|
| Venezualan Vitriol |
[Sep. 26th, 2006|04:31 pm] |
|
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez went to the United Nations earlier this week and called President Bush the devil. Part of me said, 'Hey, wait a minute, calling him names is my job!' And part of me thinks that this is one politician calling another names, let the pot and the kettle fight. But the calmest part of me sees both sides as acting in unproductive ways, as entertaining as it is may be. |
|
|
| Failed states |
[Jul. 25th, 2006|03:36 pm] |
A gentleman I work with and I discuss politics and the world situation on a regular basis. We disagree about some things, but agree on a lot more.
The other day, he offered that in a well run nation, the government should have a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. I have been thinking about this and it brings me back to a thought that amused me some time ago. If the people who wanted to make Quebec an independent country bought property on Grand Island, there would not probably not be a problem. If they used the area to launch a missile into Canada, I expect that the US government would be on the property arresting people within hours. And that is because the US would expect Canada to do the same. And I would expect that either government would have the capacity to suppress, incarcerate, and prosecute anyone who tried to conduct such a foreign policy from within it's borders.
That is where we start to see failures in states. From Somalia, which pirates are now using as a base, to Lebanon, from which Hezbollah is firing rockets, there is not really a point in complaining to the central government, as they cannot stop the militias from their activities.
These countries have lost thier monopoly on the use of force. In the case of Somalia, chaos has resulted. In the case of Lebanon, the people of the country are being attacked because of what the militia has done. In both cases the central government cannot protect it's people anymore, which is what they are supposed to be doing. |
|
|
| Politics |
[Jul. 3rd, 2006|01:40 pm] |
I once heard someone complaining that our national anthem ends with a question. "O say does the star spangled banner yet wave, over the land of the free, and the home of the brave?"
Given that the song was written during a war, it was a valid question then. I think that is the question we should still be asking. |
|
|
| navigation |
| [ |
viewing |
| |
most recent entries |
] |
| |
|
|
![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small}
kenrs's journal